The latest edition of the state economic forecast produced by UT's Center for Business and Economic Research (available online as a PDF) has what you'd have to call very tepid good news: Things are not getting worse, and there are some hopeful signs. But we're a long way from a healthy economy, both in Tennessee and nationally. The report, written by CBER Associate Director Matt Murray, notes that national GDP is currently projected to grow just 2.7 percent this year, and 2.2 percent in 2011--hardly enough to make up the ground lost in the waves of unemployment that have struck since 2008. As Murray writes, "Expect an anemic expansion and several years of lackluster growth before economic conditions fully stabilize."
In Tennessee specifically, the report projects that "Personal income should advance 3.8 percent in 2010, followed by 4.0 percent growth in 2011." And the second quarter of 2010 showed the state's first year-over-year gain in taxable sales since 2008. But even by the end of next year, it says the state will probably see an unemployment rate of about 9.5 percent. In that context, this afternoon's announcement of a 9.4 percent state jobless rate in September (down from 9.6 percent in August) seems almost like good news. Still, it is clear that happy days are not here.
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